The Foundation of an Investor’s Mindset — Thinking in Probabilities, Not Predictions
November 2, 2025
Investors often fail due to overconfidence and single-outcome thinking, rather than poor information. Successful investors treat markets as probability engines, focusing on weighted expectations (Expected Value) and aiming to be 'right big' when they are right, rather than being right all the time. The key is a cognitive shift from predicting the future to preparing for various scenarios, converting uncertainty into strategic advantage. The market rewards consistent rationality and treating uncertainty as a constant input, not an anomaly.
